Swine Flu: Clearing Up The Numbers | TPMMuckraker
Swine Flu: Clearing Up The Numbers | TPMMuckraker
I like this comment:
May 1, 2009 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like this comment:
May 1, 2009 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
posted by Mary at
9:52 AM
"This is a big deal.
It's an influenza virus with a new genetic configuration. It's a strain which has never been seen before. It's a new variant infecting humans -- and no one knows what that new genetic makeup means for the virus' transmissiblity, or lethality.
Proof of human-to-human transmission is one red flag; another is how easy the transmission is. Multiple, global outbreaks with numbers of confirmed infected ramping up quickly means it's a new virus that can spread quickly from person-to-person, and against which humans have no real immunity. If the confirmed Case Fatality Rate numbers also increase -- well, then we're screwed.
Viruses mutate as they're transmitted through a population, as their genetic material recombines. This process is a Darwinian crapshoot, but it means the virus is "trying" different combinations -- and the version of the virus that can incubate quickly, spread easily, and not kill its host (or, not too fast) means that particular strain will become dominant, even established in another host (pigs, fowl) to be re-introduced into the human population later.
No one knows what that process will do with this virus. There is some data suggesting that the 1918 version of H1N1 arrived as a mild but fairly transmissible virus, then recombined with other genetic material and re-emerged several month later as a real killer.
The 1918 'Spanish Flu' Pandemic -- and observed patterns of "behavior" in flu and respiratory disease outbreaks since -- are the template around which virologists and health organizations have created their response plans, shaped 1918-19 in the same way that government responses to the collapse of the financial structure have been shaped by what happened in 1929-32.
I think the responses by the WHO and CDC have been prudent, given the nature of influenza. Plus, there has been no serious pandemic on the scale of 1918 since that time, and humanity is overdue for one; it's why Swine Flu in 1976, SARS, or Avian Flu is such a concern. And it ought to be."